Bubble 2.0 Coming Soon, By John C. Dvorak (I kinda think of him like the Bill O’Reilly of tech) (via Slashdot.org)

The current bubble, already called Bubble 2.0 to mock the Web 2.0 moniker, is harder to pin down insofar as a primary destructive theme is concerned. A number of unique initiatives, however, are in play here. Let’s look at a few of the top ideas floating the new bubble.

Even kookie people you can learn from, and Dvorak is no exception. What he talks about has some bits of truth to it. Ever since around September of 2006, I’ve been thinking, “Damn, there’s a hell of a lot of start-ups launching.” This could be result of reading sites like TechCrunch and Mashable, but I still had this sense, and I still do. There’s been a lot of venture capital money floating around this last few years, and when I say a lot I mean billions.
I’m not sure that there’s a Bubble 2.0 so much as there’s a lot a lot of little farts in the bathtub we call the Internet. I’ve seen a lot of services that all piggy-back on YouTube. If they go under, no one will give a shit because they don’t employ many people. API’s have effectly made it easy for anyone to provide a service without too much heavy lifting. Yelp.com is a perfect example of a great mashup service that I love, but relies on the Google Maps API to make their site effective.
I think what we are seeing already isn’t so much a Bubble popping as much as we’re seeing air being redistributing from bubble to bubble. Social networking won’t be going away anytime soon, but users are fickle, and if they find out that their friends think MySpace is no good, and that Facebook is the place to be, then they will not hesitate to move.
If something happens to Google, that will be a Hydrogen-filled Zeppelin the size of California crashing to the ground. Other than that happening, there’s no bubbles that will be popping.
The old video and music industries are dying which is one of the reasons why we’re seeing so many efforts to reinvent these media online. A lot of these video start-ups HAVE to fail. Everyone wants a piece of the pie, everyone wants to make an online music store, everyone wants a video sharing site. They can’t all survive.
The key thing to understand is old music and tv media are going to keep plugging away at New Media until they get something that makes them money (read: That people like to use).